Top three reasons why Muslim countries are most at risk due to climate change
Key Takeaways
The Muslim world is especially at risk due to the effects of climate change. One key reason for this is their geographical vulnerability, facing extreme weather, water scarcity, and rising sea levels.
Existing socioeconomic challenges – such as food insecurity – are worsened by climate change, while problematic cultural norms further limit climate adaptation, particularly for marginalized groups like women.
While socioeconomic and cultural challenges can be addressed internally, geographic vulnerabilities cannot. This leaves much of the Muslim world at the mercy of developed nations - the main contributors to climate change. Diasporic Muslims must therefore advocate for climate action to protect the global Muslim community.
Muslim countries, like much of the developing world, are bearing the brunt of the climate crisis. We've touched on this before, particularly how Muslim women are most at risk due to climate change.
But what makes Muslim countries especially at risk? What factors place them at the forefront of climate change’s worst impacts?
In this article, we break down the three key reasons why Muslim countries face some of the greatest threats from climate change.
1. Muslim countries are naturally vulnerable due to their geographical positioning and harsh natural environments
Many Muslim-majority countries are situated in regions that make them especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Let’s take Pakistan as an example – the second most populated Muslim country, and one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations.
Pakistan is surrounded by high-altitude mountain ranges containing glaciers and ice caps while also being bordered by the Arabian Sea to the South. This geographical positioning creates a unique set of climate risks, including glacial melt, flooding, and extreme temperature fluctuations.
Between 1998 and 2018, Pakistan faced nearly 150 extreme weather events, with 14 major floods since 1990. The accelerating glacial melt has also increased the likelihood of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), leading to sudden and severe flooding. For instance, the 2022 floods, one of the worst climate disasters in the country’s history, resulted in damages of nearly $30 billion, and further weakened the country’s economy by destroying agricultural lands, the main contributor to Pakistan’s GDP.
This pattern is not unique to Pakistan – many other Muslim-majority countries and regions share similar vulnerabilities.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces significant climate risks due to its naturally harsh environment. With extreme temperatures, scarce rainfall, and limited groundwater, it is the most water-stressed region in the world. Climate change is expected to intensify these challenges, leading to rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, and increasing water shortages.
According to recent research, North Africa, in particular, is experiencing a warming trend beyond natural variability, with heat waves becoming more frequent and severe. Even if global warming is limited to 2°C, the heat-related mortality risk for older populations in the region could rise seven times by 2100.
The region is also highly vulnerable to sea level rise, with approximately 7% of its population living in low-lying coastal areas. Further, many of the region’s key economic activities – such as agriculture and tourism – are concentrated along these coastlines which are increasingly exposed to flooding, erosion, and salinization. Studies estimate that rising sea levels could affect more than 40 cities and displace millions within the region.
Of course, it must be kept in mind that these effects vary across countries in the MENA region by income level, with low and middle-income countries facing the worst of climate change. Which brings us to the second reason.
2. Existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities in Muslim countries exacerbate climate vulnerability
Climate change vulnerability is higher in countries and regions with existing socioeconomic hardships, such as Asia and the MENA region.
The low and middle-income (LMI) countries in this region (such as Egypt, Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Djibouti, Jordan, Morocco, Syria, Yemen, and Palestine) house 85% of the total population of the MENA region, and face a range of socioeconomic issues. These include high unemployment, rapid urbanization, and a significant rural-urban divide. In many of these countries, weak agricultural growth has fueled rural-to-urban migration, increasing pressure on cities with limited job opportunities.
With climate change and extreme weather diminishing agricultural yields, economic instability and inequality are expected to deepen in these countries.
Climate-related migration is another pressing concern in the MENA region. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the region already accounts for 14% of the global international migrant stock and 41% of the world’s Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). Political instability, water scarcity, and unemployment are existing drivers of migration, and climate change will only intensify these pressures. Worsening environmental conditions will not only deepen existing issues and instability, but also trigger both sudden displacements due to extreme weather events and long-term migration as living conditions deteriorate.
The situation is further complicated by migration from sub-Saharan Africa, where, according to recent research, climate-induced agricultural collapse could force millions to seek refuge in the MENA region.
3. Cultural patterns in Muslim regions increase climate vulnerability for marginalized groups
We’ve written extensively on this issue previously, exploring how marginalized groups such as women are most at risk in Muslim countries affected by climate change. A summarized account is presented here.
Cultural norms in many Muslim-majority countries often place marginalized groups such as women, in roles that are highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change. In regions like Somalia, for instance, women are primarily responsible for securing water and firewood. As climate-induced droughts and resource scarcities intensify, these tasks become more dangerous, increasing women's exposure to health risks and gender-based violence.
Additionally, during climate-related disasters, women frequently face limited access to essential services, including healthcare and sanitation, due to societal restrictions and infrastructural challenges. These cultural dynamics not only heighten women's vulnerability to climate change but also impede their capacity to adapt to its effects.
Diasporic Muslim populations have a key role to play in protecting the Muslim world from climate change
While raising awareness and improving economic conditions could potentially help address the socioeconomic and cultural vulnerabilities of the Muslim world, arguably the most formidable challenge – its geographical exposure to climate change – is beyond the control of the local populations. This harsh reality leaves much of the Muslim world at the mercy of the developed nations, the primary contributors to global climate change.
The onus then, is on the diasporic Muslim populations living in the developed world, to raise awareness, influence policies, and amplify the voices of those most affected to help protect their brothers and sisters in the wider Muslim world.
To help play your part, sign up as a volunteer with Green Islam today and be a part of the global climate dialogue. With a united voice, our 2 billion-strong Ummah can make a difference. But only if we stand and speak together.
